Quick Takeaways
- Hyperliquid is about to unlock $500M in HYPE tokens monthly, with concerns that most of it could flood the market.
- Former Binance CEO CZ is rumored to be backing Aster, a fast-growing rival to Hyperliquid.
- Some fear a reflexive collapse, while others argue Hyperliquid’s strong fee generation shows it’s far from dead.
Is Hyperliquid at Risk? Huge Unlocks Are Coming Fast
If you’ve been around crypto long enough, you know how quickly sentiment shifts, and right now, a lot of that anxiety is swirling around Hyperliquid. So, is Hyperliquid at risk? Let’s start with the numbers.
Beginning November 29, Hyperliquid is set to unlock 237.8 million HYPE tokens over the next 24 months. That works out to about $500 million worth of tokens entering the market each month.
Here’s the catch: buybacks currently absorb only about 17%, or $90 million monthly. That leaves a massive $410 million in new tokens hitting the open market every month. And unless something changes, that kind of sell pressure could really hurt the price.
Sure, there are reserves like those held in Data Availability Tokens (DATs) such as Sonnet, which has hundreds of millions in HYPE and stablecoins. But even with that, analysts at Maelstrom Fund don’t think it’s enough to stop the bleeding.
Is Hyperliquid at Risk? CZ’s Name Pops Up Again
Now, just as things start to look shaky for Hyperliquid, a new player is making moves: Aster, a relatively new decentralized exchange. In fact, it just posted 3x the trading volume of Hyperliquid in a single day.
Even more interesting? Rumors are flying that CZ, the former CEO of Binance, is behind Aster’s sudden rise.
Crypto Twitter is having a field day with this. Some users claim that CZ holds a massive bag of HYPE tokens, as much as 10% of the supply.
Others believe he could dump those tokens while shorting the market to profit from a collapse.
Here’s a quote from one post that went viral:
“Do we really think CZ won’t nuke $HYPE just to boost Aster? He’s done it before.”
Is any of that proven? No. But in crypto, perception is everything, and right now, that perception is rattling confidence in Hyperliquid.
Reflexivity Might Be the Bigger Problem
Now, even if CZ has nothing to do with this, and let’s be honest, that’s very possible, Hyperliquid still has a serious challenge on its hands.
Crypto researcher Ignas pointed out something that’s much more grounded than conspiracy theories: reflexivity.
Here’s the simplified version:
- If HYPE’s price drops, traders earn less from airdrops.
- So, they stop trading.
- That leads to lower volumes, which means fewer fees, and that results in smaller buybacks.
- And that pushes the HYPE price even lower.
It’s a vicious cycle, and if Hyperliquid doesn’t fix it, the unlock alone could send the platform into a slow decline.
But Hyperliquid Isn’t Exactly Dying, Either
Here’s the flip side: despite all this fear and speculation, Hyperliquid is still generating more fees than almost any other chain.
According to data from Artemis, it’s outpacing Ethereum, Solana, BNB, Bitcoin, and Tron in 24-hour fees. That means people are still using it. A lot.
Plus, not everyone thinks CZ is trying to kill Hyperliquid.
Some think it’s just a narrative designed to stir up drama (and Twitter engagement). Others believe investors will rotate profits from Aster back into solid projects like Hyperliquid once the dust settles.
