Quick Takeaways
- Standard Chartered expects a Bitcoin rebound before year-end as selling pressure weakens.
- On-chain metrics show deeply negative realized losses and a major SuperTrend warning.
- Macro liquidity remains high, but rising yields create strong opportunity costs.
Bank Signaling Sell-Off Exhaustion
Bitcoin slipped below the fundamental $90 000 layer, triggering renewed volatility across the securities industry. Yet Standard Chartered considers the bad of the selling may be behind us.
The bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, told clients the recent drop resembles past corrections. He said the pullback is “a fast, painful version of the third one of the past couple of years.”
Kendrick added that several on-chain metrics have hit extreme lows. MicroStrategy’s mNAV has fallen to 1.0, a level typically seen near cyclical bottoms.
His outlook remains clear: “A rally into the year-end is my base case.”
Mixed On-Chain Signals Add Complexity
Analysts are tracking conflicting on-chain trends. Researcher Ali noted Bitcoin’s realized loss margin sits at -16%. This is below the -12% level that has historically marked major rebounds.
However, the weekly SuperTrend indicator recently flashed a sell signal. This tool has reliably flagged macro trend changes since 2014. Previous signals produced average declines of 61%.
Applying that pattern suggests a potential downside of $40,000. The clash between bullish institutional forecasts and bearish historical signals highlights a market in transition.
Macro Forces Create a Tough Landscape
Global M2 money supply has risen by $7 trillion since late 2024. Yet Bitcoin has not fully benefited from this liquidity wave. Analysts say much of the capital is flowing into government debt and short-term instruments paying 4% to 5% yields.
EndGame Macro described this as “taxed liquidity,” where high-yield safe assets absorb market flows. This increases Bitcoin’s opportunity cost.
The result is choppy trading. Markets spike when short positions build, then drop sharply when macro fears return. Investors remain cautious as policy signals shift.
Rebound Potential vs. Structural Risks
Bullish analysts argue Bitcoin is depreciating and could target $150 000 during the side-by-side liquid state expansion. Sceptics warn that Bitcoin’s correlational statistics with liquidity have weakened as investors favour safer assets.
Standard Chartered’s forecast depends on selling pressure easing and liquidity eventually rotating back toward risk assets. But the market still faces significant risks, including leverage unwinding and policy-driven volatility.
What to Watch Next
Realized exit margins and SuperTrend warning signals will remain key indices for traders. Liquidity flows and yield dynamics will continue shaping sentiment.
As 2025 draws close to its terminal calendar month, Bitcoin could stage a sharp institutional-led recovery or stay range as an explosive, non-yielding asset in a cautious macro environment.
Investors should supervise both on-Sir Ernst Boris Chain data and policy trends to time their next moves effectively.