• Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prohibit prediction market contracts tied to death, war, and terrorism.
• The bill would remove regulatory discretion from the CFTC and impose a direct legal ban on these event contracts.
• The legislation follows concerns over platforms listing markets tied to military actions and political leadership changes.

The U.S. legislative lawmakers have introduced the Death Bets Act to block regulated exchanges from offering contracts linked to war, assassination, terrorism, or individual deaths.

Schiff Introduces the DEATH BETS Act

The bill was introduced by California’s Democratic senator, Adam Schiff, to prohibit the listing of contracts tied to terrorism, war, assassination, or individual deaths.

The proposal also includes contracts that could closely correlate with a person’s death. According to Schiff’s statement, betting on death or violent events can create financial incentives around sensitive national security matters.

He argued that insider information or classified data could influence trading activity on such markets. Schiff’s office announced the legislation in Washington while regulators review prediction market policies.

The proposal arrives as federal regulators aim to establish a clear statutory ban.

Bill Targets Regulatory Discretion at the CFTC

Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC currently has authority to block contracts tied to war, terrorism, or assassination. However, the agency decides whether such contracts conflict with the public interest.

The DEATH BETS Act would change that framework. It removes the regulator’s discretion and replaces it with a direct prohibition written into federal law.

Schiff stated that relying on regulatory judgment creates inconsistency across administrations. The proposed legislation would prevent any CFTC-registered exchange from offering these contracts regardless of leadership changes.

The issue gained attention as the agency reassessed event contract oversight. Mike Selig, chair of the CFTC, has indicated plans to revise rules governing prediction markets.

Schiff’s proposal sets up a policy conflict between lawmakers seeking stricter limits and regulators considering expanded market activity.

Prediction Market Activity Sparks Political Debate

Concerns intensified after regulated prediction platforms listed contracts linked to geopolitical events and political leadership. One example involved markets speculating whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would remain in power.

A contract referencing Ali Khamenei being “out as Supreme Leader” generated about $54 million in trading volume on Kalshi before the listing was paused.

Lawmakers also referenced trading activity tied to military developments. Reports cited more than $500 million wagered on the timing of potential U.S. military strikes on Iran.

These markets prompted criticism from several members of Congress. Some lawmakers warned that such contracts could intersect with classified intelligence or sensitive geopolitical developments.

Schiff previously raised these concerns in correspondence with regulators. The senator and other lawmakers asked the CFTC to review contracts tied to global conflicts and political instability. The DEATH BETS Act would extend existing prohibitions to explicitly include contracts linked to death. The legislation also targets markets that might indirectly correlate with fatal outcomes.