Quick Takeaways
- CryptoQuant’s on-chain metric confirms Bitcoin is in a full bear market.
- Bitcoin broke below its 365-day moving average for the first time since 2022.
- Weak demand and tightening liquidity could push BTC toward $60,000.
Bitcoin could face further downside as bearish conditions intensify. CryptoQuant says the on-range of mountains data point now corroborates a bear market. The analytics firm discourages that the downturn seems bigger than early 2022. Investor demand remains fragile across institutional and retail segments.
Bitcoin has already died at central proficient levels. The move has raised worries about further terms erosion. BTC is worth nearly $67,350 at the time of writing. Analysts say momentum remains firmly negative.
The tolerant crypto market also reflects rising stress. Liquidity will pull away as risk appetite fades.
On-chain Signals Maneuver to Further Bitcoin Weakness
CryptoQuant sounds like its Bull Score Index has exceeded zero. That strikes off the well-nigh bearish reading possible. Bitcoin peaked near $126, 000 in October. At that time, the Bull Score Index stood near 80.
The metric turned bearish after the Oct. 10 liquidation event. Selling imperativeness increases as terms move lower. CryptoQuant announces that the next major support zone lies between $70,000 and $60,000. That range of mountains contains several historically important price levels.
Julio Moreno, a strategist at CryptoQuant, said the move could pack time. He expects the $60,000 stratum to be subscribed to for several months. The zone let in the prior Hz high near $69,000. It also aligns with Bitcoin’s estimated production cost.
Mining monetary value currently crops between $65,000 and $70,000. Those stages may provide irregular support.
Institutional and Retail Demand Continue to Decline
CryptoQuant described the market as showing “broad structural weakness.” Institutional demand has reversed sharply. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs were strong net buyers last year. At this time in 2025, they held over 46,000 BTC more.
In 2026, the trend flipped. ETFs have turned into net sellers. CryptoQuant said ETF holdings have declined by roughly 10,600 BTC. That creates a demand gap of about 56,000 BTC year over year.
Retail participation also remains weak. Lower prices have failed to attract fresh buyers. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative since mid-October. That suggests weak U.S. demand.
Historically, bull markets coincide with a positive premium. CryptoQuant said that the signal has disappeared. The absence of retail inflows limits recovery potential. Selling pressure continues to dominate price action.
Liquidity Tightens as Technical Breakdown Accelerates
Liquidity conditions across crypto markets are worsening. Stablecoin data confirms the contraction. The 60-day growth of Tether’s USDT supply has turned negative. The decline totals roughly $133 million.
This marks the first contraction since October 2023. Such moves often occur during bear markets. USDT supply growth peaked at $15.9 billion in October 2025. Its reversal signals reduced capital inflows.
Long-term demand growth has also collapsed. The shift has been sharp. Annual spot demand growth fell from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC. That represents a 93% decline in four months.
CryptoQuant said most cycle-driven demand has already occurred. That leaves prices vulnerable to deeper corrections. Technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average.
This marks the first break since March 2022. CryptoQuant views it as trend confirmation. Since breaking below the level on Nov. 12, 2025, BTC has fallen 23%. The decline occurred over 83 days.
During early 2022, Bitcoin came down by solely 6% over the same period. CryptoQuant said the current drawdown is far worse. Despite the weakness, some analysts see longer-term potential. Excitableness has declined equal to preceding cycles.
Still, near-term risk remains elevated. CryptoQuant pronounces that precaution is warranted. For now, the bear market remains in control. Bitcoin may not see respite until the forced deal subsides.