- Bitcoin’s sharp rebound to $68.5K reflects large holders absorbing liquidity near $60K lows.
- Exchange outflows indicate long-term holders continue accumulation during market volatility.
- Gold’s 70% outperformance versus Bitcoin pressures digital gold positioning and macro-sensitive institutional flows.
Bitcoin rebounded to $68,591 after falling to $60,050 overnight, which is a story of liquidity assistance. The market structure exhibits weak momentum under the big moving averages.
Fear of Extreme denotes whale tactical purchases. Price is still almost a 50 percent discount to its all-time price of $126K.
Technical Structure and Short-Term Momentum
The price action of Bitcoin is below key moving averages indicating structural weakness over time. The 7-day MA is close to $65.7K, the 25-day is at 72.4K, and the 99-day is at 82.6K.
This stacked bearish alignment indicates momentum is still primarily downward. Traders are monitoring the $69.7K–$72K zone for potential reclaim and stabilization.
According to a tweet by bmsquantum, “Bitcoin is hovering around $68,591, a sharp recovery after flirting with $60K overnight. Extreme Fear (5/100) flashed a whale buy signal.”
This reflects panic-driven liquidity absorption rather than an established trend reversal. The rejection near $90.4K previously marked a distribution apex initiating the current downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows since then confirm ongoing seller dominance.
The recent drop to $60K appears driven by forced liquidations rather than organic spot selling. High volume at the bottom wick indicates reactive buying by large holders.
Extreme Fear, currently at 5/100, signals opportunistic whale accumulation. Sustained momentum requires reclaiming the 25-day moving average with acceptance and volume expansion.
Liquidity and Holder Behavior
Exchange inflows and outflows show persistent net withdrawals during the downtrend. bmsquantum notes, “Saylor class holders are underwater but history says they don’t flinch,” suggesting long-term holders remain inactive despite leverage exposure.
Coins moving off exchanges indicate accumulation rather than immediate sell intent. Outflows near $60K suggest whales absorbed liquidity at distressed prices, forming a local floor.
Inflow spikes are concentrated near local highs, indicating tactical distribution. These short-term inflows follow relief rallies, often from retail or leveraged traders.
The combination of inflows and outflows reflects a transition from distribution to early re-accumulation. Price stability and continued outflows remain necessary to validate this accumulation phase.
Deep wicks on the downside continue to get absorbed by long-term holders. Their inactivity reduces forced supply and stabilizes markets.
The $60K liquidity floor remains intact due to their presence, supporting tactical rebounds. Net outflows during this period suggest supply tightening amid ongoing corrective structure.
Macro Context and Capital Rotation
The digital gold thesis of Bitcoin is under strain because gold has beaten BTC by about 70% in the last one year. bmsquantum remarks, “The digital gold thesis of Bitcoin is under pressure because gold has been doing 70% better last year versus BTC. This deviation influences the behavior of investors, whereby they prefer safer assets where there is risk-off. Bitcoin institutional demand is becoming more vulnerable to macro trends and substitutes for store of value performance.
Price attempts to form a short-term base between $60K and $70K. Reclaiming $72K–$75K would target prior breakdown levels and potential supply zones.
Secondary resistance near $80K may signal deeper structural repair if breached. Failure to reclaim these levels likely rolls the price back toward the mid-$60Ks.
On-chain data reflects continued long-term holder conviction. Sharp rebounds from $60K indicate tactical buying by whales during extreme fear.
Although there are bullish spurts, the overall trend is still downward until the signs of higher lows and the sustained presence of green volumes are observed. Bitcoin is still exposed to macro-sensitive flows of liquidity affecting short-term volatility.