Quick Takeaways
- Bitcoin must hold $3, 000 to deflect deeply downside.
- Long-term holders are now distributing coins, signaling a major cycle per second shift.
- Weak ETF flow rate and rising macro fears are fire market volatility.
Market Mood Turns Bearish
Sentiment across the crypto market weakened sharply this week. Several institutional analysts now say Bitcoin has entered a confirmed bear regime.
10x Research reports that ETF demand, profitability metrics, and long-term holder behavior have shifted into bearish territory. Their model issued a warning in mid-October, and conditions have worsened since then.
Why $93,000 Is the Critical Line
10x Research identifies $93,000 as the key level Bitcoin must defend. A failure to hold this zone could trigger an accelerated downturn.
Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute says traders are avoiding risk. “Bitcoin was already under pressure from heavy spot selling,” he noted. “When narratives disappear, correlations to traditional assets rise.”
Long-Term Holders Start Distributing
A major cycle signal has appeared. Long-term holders have begun spending older coins after months of accumulation.
The Coin Days Destroyed indicator shows rising activity among dormant wallets. This behavior typically marks a transition from the late bull phase to the early bear cycle.
Profitability Metrics Show Deep Weakness
Profitability has slipped below key neutral thresholds. Both short-term and active investors now face profit exhaustion.
The trend has accelerated, and 10x Research warns this setup has preceded every major multi-month drawdown in previous cycles.
ETF Inflows Slow as Retail Steps Back
Spot ETF demand, once a powerful stabilizer, has weakened. Retail participation remains minimal.
The market now relies heavily on institutional flows. If those flows soften further, structural vulnerability increases.
Macro Pressures Intensify the Sell-Off
This crypto downturn aligns with a sharp rise in macro uncertainty. Recent triggers include:
- Volatility following the U.S. government shutdown
- Trump’s 100% China tariff threat
- A sharp correction in AI stocks
- Rapid repricing of rate-cut expectations
Collectively, these events drove a risk-off rotation across markets.
Cost Basis Creates a Battleground
CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju notes that investors who entered Bitcoin 6–12 months ago hold a cost basis near $94,000.
He says the $93,000–$94,000 zone represents a structural battleground for this cycle.
If Bitcoin breaks below it, 10x Research projects a move toward $82,200, its True Market Mean Price.
Regulatory Progress Offers Some Relief
The SEC recently confirmed it is working with lawmakers on comprehensive crypto legislation. Under normal conditions, this news might boost markets.
However, risk-off sentiment muted the reaction.
Outlook: Capitulation Before Recovery?
Analysts do not expect a long crypto winter. Institutional dominance and well market structure should limit the downside.
If Bitcoin holds $93 000, a consolidation phase is likely.
If it loses this level, a fall move into the low-spirited $80, 000s may watch over—potentially a major long-term corrupt opportunity.