Quick Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes says the Fed’s RMP program acts like hidden quantitative easing.
- He expects Bitcoin to range between $80K and $100K before breaking higher.
- Hayes predicts renewed liquidity could drive BTC toward $200K in 2026.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the Federal Reserve is quietly easing. He argues the Fed’s Reserve Management Purchases program mirrors quantitative easing.
Hayes shared the view in a December 19 essay titled “Love Language.” He said RMP injects liquidity through indirect and less visible channels.
According to Hayes, this renewed liquidity favors scarce assets. Bitcoin stands to benefit the most. The Maelstrom Fund CIO expects Bitcoin to reclaim $124,000. He also sees a potential move toward $200,000 in 2026.
Hayes described RMP as “QE in disguise.” He claims the program expands the money supply without political backlash.
How the Fed’s RMP Program Works
The Federal Reserve introduced RMP at the December 10 FOMC meeting. Its goal is to maintain “ample reserves” in the banking system. Under RMP, the Fed buys short-term Treasury bills. These purchases come mainly from money market funds.
Hayes explained the accounting mechanics behind the program. Money market funds receive cash from the Fed. They then reinvest the proceeds into longer-dated Treasuries or repo markets. This process effectively recycles liquidity back into the system.
While RMP totals about $40 billion per month, Hayes sees a deeper impact. He said the structure mirrors past quantitative easing programs. “This is monetary expansion by another name,” Hayes wrote. The difference lies in presentation, not effect.
He also highlighted rising U.S. government deficits. Annual funding needs exceed $2 trillion. Heavy reliance on Treasury bill issuance amplifies RMP’s influence. Liquidity flows faster when short-term debt dominates issuance.
Why Hayes Calls RMP “QE in Disguise”
Hayes argued RMP avoids the stigma tied to traditional QE. Officials do not need to announce balance sheet expansion. Instead, liquidity grows through technical operations.
This keeps public and political scrutiny low.
He noted New York Fed President John Williams controls RMP flexibility. Vague language around “ample reserves” allows discretion. Hayes said this structure enables unlimited expansion if needed. Oversight remains minimal compared to formal QE programs.
He used blunt language to describe the outcome. “Money Printer Go F***** Brrrrr,” Hayes wrote. From his view, markets underestimate this shift. Many investors still believe RMP differs from QE.
Hayes sees that belief as temporary. Once it changes, asset prices could move fast.
Bitcoin’s Expected Price Path Through 2026
Hayes expects choppy Bitcoin price action in the near term. He forecasts a trading range between $80,000 and $100,000. This phase could last into early 2026. Uncertainty around RMP’s continuation drives hesitation.
RMP is currently scheduled to run through April 2026. Markets remain unsure if it will extend. Hayes said this confusion caps upside temporarily. However, fundamentals continue to improve.
Once investors recognize RMP as QE, momentum could surge. Hayes expects Bitcoin to reclaim $124,000 quickly. Institutional FOMO would accelerate the move. ETF inflows could amplify demand.
He also cited the growing belief that the Fed underwrites government spending. That narrative supports hard assets like Bitcoin. Hayes expects Bitcoin to approach $200,000 by mid-2026. He called March 2026 a “peak expectations” period.
After that, he anticipates a pullback. The correction would form a local bottom above $124,000. Hayes stressed this would not mark a cycle top. He views it as a reset within a larger bull trend.
Portfolio Shifts and Long-Term Outlook
Alongside his macro thesis, Hayes announced portfolio changes. He shifted capital from Ethereum into select DeFi assets. He believes high-quality DeFi projects outperform during liquidity expansion. Improving fiat conditions increases on-chain activity.
Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin long-term. In late November, he raised his end-2026 target. He now sees a path toward $500,000 per Bitcoin. That outlook assumes sustained monetary expansion.
For Hayes, RMP signals a familiar playbook. Liquidity returns whenever financial stress emerges. Bitcoin, he argues, reflects that reality faster than other assets. Scarcity and global access strengthen its appeal.
If RMP continues, Hayes expects markets to reprice risk. Bitcoin could lead that repricing cycle. His message to investors remains consistent. Watch liquidity, not headlines.